Biodiversa (2019 - 2022) : FutureWeb

Climate and land use change threat to the vertebrate European food web structure and functioning

Team involved : BIOM
Platform involved : PASTIS
Main contact person : Wilfried THUILLER (LECA, CNRS)

Summary : (https://www.biodiversa.org/1360)

FutureWeb will integrate predictive biogeography, geography, biostatistics and trophic web ecology to derive an ensemble of scenarios of the impact of global change on multi-trophic vertebrate biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and the provision of ecosystem services in Europe. Through an effective involvement of relevant stakeholders, we will adapt methodological choices, scenarios and indicators in such a way that the results are useful for conservation planning and decision-making support.

More specifically, the overarching objectives of FutureWeb are :


– Objective 1 : Ensure an effective application and uptake of scenarios and models in policymaking and decision-making by involving policymakers, practitioners and other relevant stakeholders throughout the entire process of scenario development, selection of relevant biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and services variables, and conservation options.

 

– Objective 2 : Develop a set of harmonized ecological and environmental data across Europe including species distribution data, species trait data and a fully resolved species interaction matrix (‘who eats whom ?”) for all European vertebrates, as well as high resolution climatic and land use layers for both current and future conditions.


– Objective 3 : Develop, benchmark and extend novel multi-trophic biodiversity models to larger spatial scales and multi-trophic diversity data. These models will allow predictions for individual species and diversity in areas. We will apply them to all vertebrate species to project their potential distributions under ensembles of climate and land use scenarios while accounting for their trophic interactions. The ensemble of biodiversity scenarios will not only account for the uncertainty embedded in the biodiversity models and data, but also will be based on a large range of regional climate models (RCMs), the full set of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) scenarios of land use change. In other words, rather than a single projection per species, we will provide a distribution of projections.

– Objective 4 : Integrate measures of multi-trophic ecosystem functioning and services in the ensemble predictions. We will use the total energy flux between functional feeding guilds calculated based on metabolic scaling theory and principles of food-web energy dynamics. Depending on the resource pool that the energy flux comes from, these fluxes can be directly related to ecosystem services, such as biocontrol through predation. In addition to the total energy flux, we will focus on specific functions and services provided by vertebrates (pest control, regulation of open areas, regulation of herbivores, cultural service(9)).

– Objective 5 : Identify areas that should be conservation priorities by combining the principles of systematic conservation planning with the ensembles of the ensemble projections of biodiversity projections, multi-trophic functioning and ecosystem services. Rather than being based on the current land use, these conservation planning methods will be embedded in the threats and opportunities that are offered by ongoing and future land use change and land use policies. Embedding the uncertainty of the scenarios in conservation planning will provide novel ways to identify the most robust conservation options that can be discussed with the stakeholders.

 

Publications :
Braga, J., Pollock, L.P., Barros, C, Galiana, N., Montoya, J., Gravel, D., Maiorano, L., Montemaggiori, A., Ficetola, G.F., Dray, S. & Thuiller, W. (2019) Spatial analyses of multi-trophic terrestrial vertebrate assemblages in Europe. Global Ecology & Biogeography, 28, 1636–1648

O’Connor, L., Pollock, L.J., Braga, J., Ficetola, G.F., Maiorano, L., Martinez-Almoyna, C., Montemaggiori, A., Ohlmann, M. & Thuiller, W. (2020) Unveiling the food webs of tetrapods across Europe through the prism of the Eltonian niche. Journal of Biogeography

Saladin, B., Thuiller, W., Graham, C.H., Lavergne, S., Maiorano, L., Salamin, N. & Zimmermann, N.E. (2019) Environment and evolutionary history shape phylogenetic turnover in European tetrapods. Nature Communications, 10, 249. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-08232-4

Thuiller, W., Guéguen, M., Renaud, J., Karger, D.N., & Zimmermann, N.E. (2019) Uncertainty in ensembles of global biodiversity scenarios. Nature Communications. 10:1146

Partners :

  • LECA - CNRS - Université Grenoble Alpes - Université Savoie Mont Blanc (Laboratoire d’Écologie Alpine)

– Wilfried THUILLER
– Laura J. POLLOCK (now at Mc. Gill University)
– Louise O’CONNOR (PhD student)
– Maya GUEGUEN
– Tamara MÜNKEMÜLLER
– François MUNOZ
– Julien RENAUD
– Giovanni POGGIATO (PhD student)

  • DUKE - Durham - (Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, US)

– James S. CLARK

  • iDIV - Leipzig - (Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Germany)

– Ulrich BROSE
– Ana-Carolina Antunes (PhD student)
– Benoit Gauzens (Postdoc)
– Myriam Hirt

  • WSL - Zurich - (Swiss Federal Research Institute, Switzerland)

– Catherine GRAHAM
– Dirk Karger (postdoc)
– Niklaus Zimmermann

  • FMNH - Helsinki (Finnish Biodiversity Information Facility, Finland)

– Atte MOILANEN
– Isaac Peterson (postdoc)

  • VU - Amsterdam (Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, the Netherlands)

– Peter VERBURG
– Yue Dou (postdoc)

  • Univ. Roma - Roma (Department of Biology and Biotechnologies “Charles Darwin”, University of Rome “La Sapienza”, ITALY)

– Luigi MAIORANO

  • WCMC - Cambridge (United Nations Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK)

– Mike HARFOOT
– Matthew Ling