Axis 4 : Integrative predictions of biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and nature’s contributions to people

We predict species, trait and trophic group distribution in space ...
The models developed in the previous axes are used to predict the distribution of species in space, where they have not been observed yet (e.g. BIOMOD2, MEM). We develop and test tools to account for trophic interactions between species to predict their distribution in function of resources availability (e.g. trophic species distribution models). We dedicate efforts in understanding and predicting trait diversity in space to forecast ecosystem stability and resilience. We test and benchmark how remote sensing data can improve biodiversity prediction in respect to other environmental variables.

We predict biotic interaction networks ...
We build on the models developed in axis 3 for observed species interactions (e.g. multi-species Lotka-Volterra models) and extrapolate them to unobserved species interactions, e.g. through approaches that allow predicting species interactions (nature, direction, intensity) based on species trait match (e.g. flower tube length vs. insect tong length) and/or phylogenetic distances (e.g. for plant-plant interaction strength).

We account for combined global change threats in predictions of biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and nature’s contributions to people ...
We predict the effect of different global change scenarios including single and combined pressures on multi-trophic diversity, ecosystem functions and nature’s contributions to people. We build on correlational, mechanistic and hybrid models that have been developed at LECA or are under developments in collaborations with mathematical and statistical labs. This includes joint community models (multilevel models, trophic species distribution models or graphical models, that account for non-independence between species), ecosystem service models (e.g. ESNET toolbox), environment dependent Lotka-Volterra models, process-based dynamic vegetation models (e.g. FATE-HD) and hierarchical models that integrate modeling compartments that are focused on different scales. These models are used to derive narrative scenarios that are in line with the Nature Future framework promoted by the IPBES and are co-developed with stakeholders like National Parks. New ecosystem service models incorporate social processes of co-production based on different capitals (human, social, financial, manufactured), governance and power relationships. Exploratory and normative scenarios are combined to support the participatory exploration of policy-relevant adaptation pathways. All these predictions are then used in systematic conservation planning to derive adaptive scenarios for protecting biodiversity or to increase the existing protected area network or to best select additional ones.